Abstracts and bios of the speakers
Bruno Schoumaker : Since the late 1990s, several countries in sub-Saharan Africa have experienced halts and reversals in fertility decline. This presentation dissects the link between fertility stagnation and education trends in 34 countries. Using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), we first reconstruct fertility trends by level of education since the 1980s. We then apply a decomposition method to analyse how changes in the educational composition of the population have affected fertility rates at the national level, particularly during periods of fertility stagnation. Our results indicate that, in most cases, compositional effects have a minimal or negligible impact on fertility stagnation. On the other hand, fertility stagnation appears to be a collective phenomenon since it affects all educational strata in most of the countries experiencing this demographic pattern.
Luisa Fadel :Following union dissolution, women are more likely than men to live with their children. At the same time, in many European countries, there has been a recent increase in the percentage of children living with their fathers. However, little is known about the socio-economic factors leading fathers, rather than mothers, to coreside with their children after separation. In this study, we focus on couples with minor children and investigate the role of their own and partner’s income on the likelihood of becoming the resident parent upon union dissolution.
In doing so, we analyze data from Belgian registers and tax records and look at coresident couples with at least one minor child in 2017 who separated within the following year. We use linear probability models to investigate how income in the year preceding union dissolution is associated with the likelihood of both mothers and fathers becoming resident parents (versus non-resident parents). We then applied three-way interaction terms to account for the combined effect of each parent’s income.
Our preliminary findings point to the importance of individual economic resources in the parent-child coresident decision among separating couples. However, our results do not provide support for the hypothesis that a higher relative income gives some advantage in living arrangements negotiations.
Mireille Le Guen : This presentation aims to compare the contraceptive use of immigrants and descendants of immigrants living in France with people born in France from French parents.
Irma Elo : The presentation will focus on the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States from March 2020 to late 2022. We find a disproportionate impact of COVID-19 mortality burden on racial and ethnic minorities early in the pandemic, which led to an increase in racial and ethnic disparities in mortality. These disparities subsequently narrowed and returned close to their pre-pandemic levels in 2022. The initial concentration of excess mortality associated with the pandemic was concentrated in large metropolitan areas in the Northeast of the United States, but by July 2021 nonmetropolitan Southern counties had the highest cumulative relative excess mortality.
Philippe Bocquier, Ashira Menashe-Oren, and Carren Ginsburg:
The study examines how to integrate sequence analysis in an event history framework by introducing time-varying life histories as a covariate. We suggest the use of time-varying sequence analysis for researchers lacking prior hypotheses, on the condition that it is applied to the entire population at risk. We propose a new methodology to apply sequence analysis to a large population and apply it to Agincourt (South Africa) HDSS longitudinal data. The manual clustering of migration histories based on criteria like duration in each state yields meaningful results. While the second-order classic method suffices for most analyses, it underestimates the recent migrant and adaptation effects and overestimates the return migration effect, because it lacks a circular migrant category. However, the three approaches identify the recent migrant effect, the adaptation effect, and the higher mortality of return migrants. Our empirical study emphasizes the similarity of results from sequence analysis, manual grouping, and the classic second-order approach.
Kassoum Dianou [1], [2], Bruno Masquelier1, Bruno Lankoandé2, Abdramane Soura2, Hervé Bassinga2, Ashira Menashe Oren1, Malebogo Tlhajoane3, Georges Reniers3, ….
Objectives: This study aims to quantify the impact of errors related to age, dating, and omissions on observed differences in mortality rates between traditional face-to-face surveys and mobile phone surveys.
Methods Within the Ouagadougou Demographic and Health Surveillance System (OHDSS), we conducted a validation study, interviewing reproductive-age adults over the phone, for whom we had high-quality prospective data on the survival of their children, siblings, and parents. Individual records were matched, and we assessed the sensitivity and specificity of mobile phone interviews in recording vital events, as well as the accuracy of reported ages and dates.
Results Our findings revealed gender-specific patterns; men tended to overestimate their age in mobile phone surveys, while women tended to underestimate it compared to OHDSS data. Additionally, the proportion of deceased parents reported was higher in mobile phone surveys MPS than in the reference OHDSS records. The number of children ever born reported in mobile phone surveys varied based on the respondent's age group and the location from which the woman answers the questions, with fewer children reported than expected from prospective OHDSS data.
Conclusion This study sheds light on the complex error patterns associated with MPS, mobile phone surveys, emphasizing the need for thorough examination before considering their broader implementation as a replacement for traditional face-to-face surveys.
Chaimae Drioui : In Morocco, the fertility transition process, like changes in fertility preferences, has been accompanied by a notable improvement in women's status. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of Moroccan women's empowerment on the actual-ideal gap, an indicator that measures the gap between two components, the number of surviving children and the ideal number of children, and hence on their ability to limit their fertility to this ideal. To build a good indicator of the empowerment, we used a similar approach to that used to measure the SWPER composite index proposed in the literature, which is based on several dimensions, including participation in decision-making, attitude towards male violence, and other conventional measures of women's status such as education and participation in economic activity. The empirical examination was conducted using the Skellam method, which models difference between two Poisson variables. Data were derived from two national population and family health surveys conducted in 2004 and 2011. The results indicate that there is a plausible negative association between women's empowerment and the ideal number of children. However, the relationship with the number of surviving children is not always verified. The lack of a link between women’s empowerment and the actual-ideal gap can hide a non-symmetric and equally strong effect on its two components. Moreover, in an advanced transition context, women’s empowerment may not operate significantly on surviving fertility because of actual constraints like contraceptive efficiency and sex preferences.
12 mars : Louise Caron (INED)
Title : How Inherited Residential Environments Shape Socioeconomic Outcomes:
Evidence from Immigrant and Native Families over Three Generations
Authors : Louise Caron (INED), Mathieu Ichou (INED), Haley McAvay (University of York) & Rosa Weber (INED & Stockholm University)
Abstract:
A large body of literature has established that living in deprived areas during childhood negatively impacts outcomes in adulthood. While most studies adopt a single-generation perspective, only a long-term and multigenerational approach can capture the full scope of neighbourhood effects since residential characteristics are often transmitted from one generation to the next. This article adds to the rare studies that explore the relationship between residential context and socioeconomic outcomes over three generations. We examine how the combined effects of parents’ and grandparents’ residential environments shape grandchildren’s SES outcomes. As an original contribution, we assess whether these multigenerational residential effects are more salient for children of immigrants compared to natives, and explore the joint effects of neighbourhood SES and ethnoracial composition, in the novel context of France.
We link data from the recent TeO2 survey with historical censuses to construct measures of grandparents’ and parents’ residential environments in terms of ethnoracial composition and socioeconomic disadvantage. We use logistic regressions to compare the multigenerational effects of these indicators on grandchildren’s educational and labour-market outcomes, and test interactions to explore how they differ between immigrant and native families. We expect to find a negative effect of residential disadvantage on grandchildren’s SES outcomes, which will be the strongest when both parents and grandparents lived in deprived settings. However, we anticipate that multigenerational exposure to areas with ethnoracial diversity may have a positive effect, as coethnic proximity might favour the integration of immigrant-origin children.
2 avril : Marine Quennehen (CIRFASE/UCLouvain)
Titre: Devenir père avant 25 ans : Quel passage à la vie adulte pour les hommes issus
des classes populaires en situation d'incarcération ? (Becoming a father before the age of 25: What is the transition to adulthood for men incarcerated working-class men?)
Résumé :
Enquêter en prison a montré que la paternité précoce n’est pas un phénomène marginal dans ce lieu, car elle concerne de nombreux jeunes hommes. La moitié des prisonniers rencontrés ont 25 ans ou moins à la naissance du premier enfant. Leurs trajectoires sont transgressives par rapport aux normes dominantes à plusieurs niveaux. Ils deviennent pères à un âge précoce, n’ont pas franchi les étapes valorisées de l’accès à l’âge adulte (stabilisation conjugale, résidentielle et professionnelle) et sont incarcérés. Les analyses sociologiques classiques sur le passage à la vie adulte s’appliquent difficilement à des populations à la marge ou minoritaires. Ces hommes laissent advenir les évènements — ici des grossesses qui arrivent à leur terme — sans maitriser les incidences que cela pourrait avoir sur leur avenir. Ma contribution reviendra sur le simple constat d’un écart aux régularités sociales et aux attentes normatives pour comprendre comment ces hommes incarcérés et issus des fractions les plus démunies des classes populaires deviennent pères et comment ces naissances s’inscrivent dans leurs trajectoires.
Abstract (but her presentation will be in French):
Investigating in prison has shown that early fatherhood is not a marginal phenomenon there, as it involves many young men. Half the prisoners interviewed were aged 25 or under when their first child was born. Their trajectories are transgressive in relation to the dominant norms on several levels. They become fathers at an early age, have not gone through the valued phases of access to adulthood (conjugal, residential and professional stabilization) and are incarcerated. Conventional sociological analyses of the passage to adulthood are difficult to apply to marginal or minority populations. These men let events happen - in this case, pregnancies coming to term - without knowing what impact this might have on their future. My contribution will focus on the simple observation of a deviation from social regularities and normative expectations. The aim is to understand how these incarcerated men from the poorest sections of the working classes become fathers, and how these births are integrated into their trajectories.
JOSUE BEGU
Title: Effects of origin contexts and migration policies on the re-emigration of Sub-Saharan African migrants living in Belgium
Abstract:
Research on re-emigration underscores that the migratory paths and decisions of individuals to emigrate depend on the personal characteristics of potential emigrants, as well as the socio-economic and political contexts of both destination and origin countries (de Haas, 2011, de Haas et al., 2019). These contexts serve as a framework for understanding migratory decisions, considering the various influences and interactions that can affect re-emigration. Recognizing that a country's context is
dynamic, this study investigates the impact of changes in the socio-economic and political context in
Sub-Saharan African countries and migration policies in the destination country on re-emigration. The
primary data sources are from the World Bank, providing information on the Human Development Index (HDI) and political stability in the countries of origin of migrants (Kaufmann et al., 2011). Additionally, data from DEMIG POLICY on migration policies in Belgium are integrated with individual data from the national registry to control for desired effects based on individual characteristics
(Bocquier et al., 2019). Overall findings suggest that improvements in economic and political conditions in countries of origin have a positive influence on return migration. Policies related to voluntary or forced repatriation positively impact re-emigration, irrespective of the destination, whereas integration policies are associated with subsequent migrations. The less favorable these integration policies, the lower the level of migrant integration, and the higher the probability of emigrating to find better opportunities elsewhere.
- [1] Center for Demographic Research, University of Louvain, Belgium
- [2] Institut Supérieur des Sciences de la Population, Burkina Faso
- [2] The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
- 12 May
- Titre : Le Choléra en milieu rural en 1866 dans les provinces de Namur et de Luxembourg. Analyse à partir d’une source originale
- Le choléra est la grande pandémie du 19e siècle avec plusieurs vagues tout au long de la période. En Belgique, l’épidémie de 1866 est la plus meurtrière et l’une des mieux documentée. Cette présentation permettra de présenter la source et d’en discuter la richesse. Elle permettra également de mettre en lumière les spécificités en milieu rural d’une épidémie présentée le plus souvent comme essentiellement urbaine.
Cette présentation visera trois objectifs :
Présenter la source : Le relevé nominatif des personnes atteintes du choléra
Analyser le processus de diffusion de la maladie en milieu rural. Comment se propage l’épidémie ? Quels sont les territoires les plus touchés ?
Esquisser le profil socio-démographique des décédés du choléra. Correspond-il à celui observé ailleurs, notamment dans les autres régions du pays, dans les autres milieux de résidence, notamment urbains ? Observe-t-on des différences de profil entre les guéris et les décédés ?
Title : Cholera in rural areas in 1866 in the provinces of Namur and Luxembourg. Analysis based on an original source
M. Bourguignon, Y Doignon, T. Eggerickx and J-P. Sanderson
Abstract
Cholera was the great pandemic of the 19th century, with several waves throughout the period. In Belgium, the epidemic of 1866 is the deadliest and one of the best documented. This presentation will introduce the source. It will also highlight the rural specificities of an epidemic that is often presented as essentially urban.
The presentation has three objectives:
1. To present the source: the nominative record of people infected with cholera.
2. To analyze how the disease spread in rural areas. How does the epidemic spread? Which areas are most affected?
3. Sketch the socio-demographic profile of cholera victims. Does it correspond to that observed elsewhere, notably in other regions of the country, and in other areas of residence, especially urban? Are there any differences between the profiles of those who recovered and those who died?
Ute Dubois1, Tutana Kvaratskhelia2, Françoise Bartiaux3 & Philippe Bocquier3
Title:War, energy poverty, and capabilities: the case of Georgia
Abstract
What are the consequences of a war on the daily life of a society, in particular on its access to energy and thus on energy poverty and its correlates in terms of well-being? Georgia, a country in the Caucasus, offers its experience as it faced a war from Russia in August 2008 and earlier, different episodes of Russian-provoked conflicts after its secession from the Soviet Union in the 1990s. Two years before and one year after the 2008 war, several thousand Georgians were interviewed in a multi-scope survey. In this quasi-experimental design, these panel data make it possible to 'follow' respondents in 2006 and 2009 and their perceptions of their economic and material situation, their energy access problems, as well as their general and mental health, and the extent of social support they receive or do not receive. A panel analysis on these developments is contextualised with information on public policies. The results indicate that capabilities predict energy poverty dynamics better than socio-demographic variables. The evolution of capabilities in Georgia are differentiated between the capital region, other cities, and rural areas where the population mainly relies on firewood for heating and cooking.
1 ISG International Business School, Paris, France
2 Think Tank World Experience for Georgia (WEG), Tbilisi, Georgia
3 Centre of Demographic Research, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Authors: Bruno Masquelier and Bruno Schoumaker
Title: A new method for estimating child mortality from paternal reports
Abstract: Brass' indirect method is widely employed for child mortality estimation in countries lacking robust vital statistics. It is based on summary birth histories reported by mothers (their total number of children ever born and surviving). This study adapts the method to exploit summary birth histories collected among men, introducing new coefficients reflecting male fertility patterns. We compare mortality estimates from fathers and mothers and highlight the importance of the paternal perspective, particularly in analyzing mortality differentials.